Morgan Stanley has seen a notable impact on the economy and consumer spending in the US thanks to the tours of Taylor Swift and Beyoncé, as well as the summer blockbusters “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer”…

According to a report by Morgan Stanley, real consumer spending in the third quarter of the US is expected to increase 1.9%, thanks in part to the impressive tours of music superstars Taylor Swift and Beyoncé as well as series of summer blockbusters “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer.”

But the economic halo may only be short-lived, Morgan Stanley warns.

Taken together, economist Sarah Wolfe said the unprecedented sales levels tied to these events would add a seventh of a percentage point to consumption growth in the quarter. They are included in the non-sports live entertainment and film consumption group in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.

The two fields mentioned above account for about 0.2% and 0.05% of the total index, respectively. That means fans are spending enough money in these typically small percentage areas to significantly boost the health of the overall U.S. economy.

Taylor Swift’s “Eras” and Beyoncé’s “Renaissance” tours have filled stadiums across the country. Taylor Swift’s tour, in particular, has attracted attention because its expensive resale market and difficulty in purchasing tickets have left Ticketmaster closely watched by fans and lawmakers alike.

Meanwhile, Beyoncé has made headlines for proposing to pay to maintain Washington D.C.’s subway system. operating later than usual after the show was delayed due to inclement weather.

Both tours were credited with boosting the economies of the cities they visited. The impact has caught the attention of everyone from local business owners to the Federal Reserve. Last month, the Philadelphia Fed President reported that when Taylor Swift’s concert took place, hotel bookings in the state showed the strongest growth since the pandemic.

“While tourism in the region has generally recovered slowly, May was the strongest month for hotel revenue in Philadelphia thanks to Taylor Swift concert attendance,” central bank officials said. said in the Beige Book, a summary of economic activity released eight times a year.

In addition to the wave of major music tours, Universal’s series of summer blockbusters “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” also “broke” box office sales last month. “Barbie” became the highest-grossing film released in the US this year, while “Oppenheimer” is now director Christopher Nolan’s third best-performing film ever. Along with a number of other films, the week of July 21 is considered the fourth largest opening weekend ever in US box office history. In particular, retailers also quickly joined the “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” craze, launching countless themed items from high heels to pool floats and stationery to attract consumers. .

Impact of “Barbenheimer” and the two Taylor Swift and Beyonce tours on real PCE growth in Q3 and Q4 2023 in the US

But the end of US music tours and reduced theater attendance for the rest of the year will likely lead to a “hangover effect” on consumer spending. consumption in the fourth quarter. Morgan Stanley predicts that real PCE will decrease by 0.6% between the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter.

At the same time, the “return” of student loans in the fall will also drag down consumption by another 1/8 of a percentage point.

 

But economist Sarah Wolfe noted that the drag on consumer spending after the student loan repayment period expires will be eased somewhat by President Joe Biden’s administration’s 12-month extension. Under this plan, borrowers who miss payments in the first year will avoid some of the most draconian consequences.